Almost exactly 10 months ago, in my first post for The Athletic, I evaluated and ranked the 2022 draft’s highly touted edge class, headlined by Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Eventually, all three players were selected in the top five, placed into starting roles and asked to be foundational building blocks for their respective franchises. Two of the three (Walker in Jacksonville, Thibodeaux in New York) made postseason appearances as rookies.
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Leading up to the draft, Hutchinson’s stock was through the roof. He’d blown up the combine after a Heisman Trophy-worthy season. Walker, meanwhile, narrowly missed a sub-4.5-second 40-yard dash in Indianapolis, addingthat impressive workout to his national championship run with Georgia and a slew of highlights that showed him blowing up run blockers. Thibodeaux was the best pure rusher and fit the physical profile of a potential stud, but he seemed to be the consensus third choice because of his inconsistent production against teams he was clearly talented enough to dominate.
I cast my lot for Thibodeaux last spring, though, taking the flashes on film and that height-weight-speed combination as sufficient evidence of his star potential. Ultimately, Hutchinson ultimately had the best sack numbers (9 1/2) of the bunch, but he and Thibodeaux performed well for their respective teams. And while Walker didn’t get home as a rusher as often as his peers, Jacksonville has been clear that it drafted him with a long-term vision in mind.
With training camp about six weeks away, that talented edge trio will be looking to build on what it began in 2022. Let’s look at how each player fared in their debut season, their current strengths and weaknesses, and what we can expect of them in 2023.
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What The Numbers Tell Us
(Note: Stats are via TruMedia. Due to positional listings within TruMedia, any statistical rankings will include all front-seven players, as edge rushers fall under DL and LB denominations.)
There is a massive learning curve for young players in the modern NFL, which makes any gauge of what’s good or not largely contextual. Though the football world has come to accept that sheer tackle volume is a poor way to illustrate value, narratives around young defensive players are still heavily influenced by volatile statistics like turnovers and sacks.
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There’s really only one objective truth we can glean from data over recent history: Edge rushers are rarely a big hit in their rookie year. Since 2019, only three players have logged 50 or more pressures as rookies. If we take it a step further and focus on pressures converted into knockdowns (sacks and QB hits), a mere 11 rookies have logged 15 or more over that time.
The best rookie pass rushers over the last four years aren’t hard to guess, either: Nick Bosa (80 pressures, 27 knockdowns), Micah Parsons (67 pressures, 27 knockdowns), Josh Allen (49 pressures, 25 knockdowns) and Maxx Crosby (45 pressures, 15 knockdowns).
Pass Rush Production
| Player | Pass rush attempts | Pressures | Knockdowns | Pressure Rate | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
534 | 53 | 15 | 9.9% | 9.5 | |
389 | 40 | 15 | 10.3% | 4.0 | |
392 | 36 | 10 | 9.2% | 2.5 |
With the top performers established, we can set some thresholds to help us judge whether or not a rookie pass rusher has contributed at a high level. Considering the performances of the 378 rookie defensive linemen and linebackers to log NFL snaps over the last four years, it’s fair to say that an “on track” edge rusher should deliver around 30 pressures and 15 knockdowns. Since even highly drafted edge rushers can wind up as part of a pass-rush rotation, we can look for a 10-percent pressure rate from rookies — especially those with fewer than 300 opportunities to get after the passer.
Where does all of that leave the headliners of the 2022 class?
Thibodeaux is the only one of the three to clear those baselines for pressure rate, knockdowns and total pressures. Hutchinson surpassed the desired pressures mark by a wide margin, but his knockdowns barely cleared and his pressure rate fell a hair below the line. Walker didn’t generate a high enough rate of pressure, nor did he convert pressure into contact often enough to reach the “on track” designation.
To this point, Thibodeaux and Hutchinson are within a stride of each other as the best edge of the 2022 NFL Draft, but there’s more to learn about both players. Hutchinson’s pressure and sack numbers don’t square with his knockdowns and pressure rate, and I want to see what — if anything — kept Thibodeaux from producing more sacks. As for Walker, I need to know how far along (or how far away) he is from actualizing all his physical gifts.
Travon Walker had 3.5 sacks and 49 tackles as a rookie in Jacksonville. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)What The Film Tells Us
More often than not, players are what they are once they hit the league. They may master what makes particular styles effective, but you rarely turn players into something they weren’t prior.
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Hutchinson is a high-motor rusher who uses endless effort and power rushes to get to the quarterback when his quick get-off and agility don’t get the job done. He still leaves something to be desired in pure pass-rushing situations, because his lack of length sometimes prevents him from getting the necessary angles to convert pressure into contact.
In his three-sack outing against the Commanders (who seemed to be every rookie rusher’s favorite opponent), Hutchinson’s productivity mostly came on clean-up work or on second/third efforts when QB Carson Wentz tried to extend plays or sat too long in the pocket. Against a more mobile threat in Bears QB Justin Fields, those clean-up pressures were harder to come by. Hutchinson made an encouraging adjustment in his pass-rushing plan, however: He relied more on his power rush in those matchups.
💪 @aidanhutch97 💪#DETvsCHI | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/0uS4fIDHZ8
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 13, 2022
Teeing off on Bears OT Larry Borom (or Riley Reiff, as was the case on the sack above) helped make the tape look better, but it was clear that Hutchinson understood how to use those bull rushes to make a QB uncomfortable and force them off their preferred spots.
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Ten Lions players to watch at OTAs, including Aidan Hutchinson and Jared Goff
Thibodeaux is the closest of this group to being a “bender,” but he likes to rely on his hand fighting just as much. Same as it was in evaluating his college tape, his commitment to being a complete edge rusher is admirable but frustrating, and it captures why his production sometimes falls short of what could be.
You could see all of his explosive potential as a rusher during a matchup with Cowboys tackle Tyler Smith in Week 12. Thibodeaux is great out of his stance, and in that game, set up some opportunities to bend the edge by feigning other rush moves. He then finished reps with a relentless will to get to QB Dak Prescott. If you split the season in half, you can see obvious changes and improvements to his plan of attack — particularly how much power he generated in each of his rush attempts, and his understanding of when to throw wrinkles at his opponents.
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Thibodeaux had a couple of missed opportunities, and will still have a few reps a game on which he loses his balance mid-rush, but he set a strong foundation during his rookie year. Against Dallas, and in both games against Washington, Thibodeaux also flashed some real potential as a run defender, blowing tight ends off the ball and setting hard edges — something that came and went far too often in his college career. If Giants DC Wink Martindale has a way to instill 100 percent buy-in from Thibodeaux as a run defender, Thibodeaux’s ceiling as a player can grow significantly.
Sack.
Forced Fumble.
Touchdown.@kayvont is ridiculous 😤
📺: #NYGvsWAS on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/BooZSZJZF4 pic.twitter.com/vgTrvJ4gnI
— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2022
As for Walker, you could see him searching for comfort throughout last season within a new defensive role. It was the first time that Walker had played as a full-time standup edge rusher, which is a much more significant detail in practice than it reads on paper.
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Walker’s best attribute was his explosiveness out of his stance, as it allowed him to generate the power to crumple run blockers and crush pockets from the edge. There wasn’t nearly enough of it on tape, however. Walker was more tentative at the snap and taking on blocks than I expected. He rarely found himself out of position or lost reps as an edge-setting run defender, but he didn’t attack nearly enough.
#1 overall pick Travon Walker with the strip sack 😤
📺: #JAXvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/xHAnGDC3Lg pic.twitter.com/avBjkPpFBo
— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2022
Against Kansas City in Week 10 and again in the playoffs, Walker fought hard against the downhill running attack Andy Reid added to his offense’s repertoire, but he did little to bother Patrick Mahomes’ rhythm on passing downs. Walker doesn’t quite have a plan yet. He stays engaged too long with tackles and works too wide of angles to make quarterbacks uncomfortable.
Walker also failed to produce the flashes you would’ve liked to see against opponents like Indianapolis, which struggled all season to keep Matt Ryan upright. He never registered more than one QB knockdown in any game last year. Given Walker’s speed and motor, there’s reason to be concerned about his readiness to be an every-down edge player. That same question persisted throughout his pre-draft process.
Outlooks for 2023 (and beyond)
Let’s start with Walker here, because he has the most ground to make up in the race. For all the yellow or orange flags on last year’s tape, I’m not close to selling my shares in his stock quite yet. There’s alignment between the Jaguars’ staff and Walker that this coming season will be all about getting him back into comfortable positions, then building his game from there.
That should mean more time in a three-point stance — where Walker can use power rather than speed as his foundation — and more attempts to move Walker around to hunt favorable pass-rushing situations. For all my critiques of his game, Walker’s not far from being where he needs to be as an edge rusher. If nothing else, I think the 2023 season will bring glimpses of we expect to see from Walker as a run defender.
I was dubious of his star potential last year (and still am), but it’s still possible for Walker to be a strong secondary rusher if he can find a go-to move and apply his motor.
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When it comes to Hutchinson, I’m not sure how he could deliver much better sack production than we saw last season. I like the adjustments he makes depending on the matchup, as well as his undying pursuit of the ball and his ability to time up a snap well enough to bull rush a tackle into the QBs lap.
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Looking at his pressure-rate numbers in conjunction with his play style, though, it’s hard to see him developing enough to deliver much better than a 10-to-12-percent pressure rate. He’s also going to struggle to produce enough hits given his number of hurries, and he’ll have some stretches in which it feels like he’s not doing enough to affect the game.
I have some real questions about Hutchinson as a run defender, too. At least in his rookie season, however, it was hard to parse how much of the problem was his alone versus how much of a collective issue Detroit had.
That leaves Thibodeaux, whom I still consider the most promising edge rusher of these three. His growth as a run defender was a surprising development over the second half of the season, and he’s close to breaking out as a pass rusher with the right combination of speed and power to keep tackles off balance. He’s not finishing as often as you’d want — that dogged him at Oregon, too — but the sack numbers belie a legitimately well-rounded defender.
There’s plenty of defensive line talent around him to create opportunities, so I’m anxious to see if Thibodeaux can finally put it all together and affect the game even more significantly. If any one of these guys is to become a multiple-time Pro Bowl or All-Pro talent, I’d bet on Thibodeaux — same as I would have in 2022. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Thibodeaux make a significant leap long before his rookie fifth-year option comes due.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic;
photos: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images,Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
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